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Miami Beach Luxury Condo Supply Drops To 7 Months Of Units Listed For Sale At Start Of Summer Buying Season

Buyers Purchased Nearly 200 Miami Beach Luxury Condos In Q1 2021   

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(This Report Is Powered By The Condo Vultures® Podcast Series Featuring Expert Peter Zalewski

DOWNTOWN MIAMI (May 28, 2021) - Nearly 465 luxury condo units are formally listed for sale at a minimum price of at least $1 million each in the barrier island city of Miami Beach in the South Florida county of Miami-Dade during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a new report from Condo Vultures® Realty LLC.

Based on luxury condo sales of more than 65 units monthly in the first three months of 2021, Miami Beach now has about a seven-month supply of units available for purchase in the tricounty South Florida region of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach at the start of the traditional Summer Buying Season, according to the report based on data from the Southeast Florida MLS Matrix.

A balanced market is generally considered to have about six months of supply. More months of condo supply listed for sale suggests a buyer’s advantage and less months typically indicates a seller’s advantage in the market.

It is worth noting this report only tracks those Miami Beach condos formally listed for sale. The report does not factor in the nearly 47,750 new condo units currently in the development pipeline east of Interstate 95 in the tricounty South Florida region, according to CraneSpotters.com.

In this new COVID-19 pandemic era, numerous questions exist about how the South Florida residential real estate market will perform going forward, both in the short- and medium-term periods. After a typical start to the new year, the South Florida residential real estate market began to change dramatically at the end of the first quarter of 2020. 

When Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a "state of emergency to create a pathway to obtain funding and resources to stop the spread of COVID-19" on March 9, 2020, the South Florida residential real estate market continued to function, albeit with changes for safety that included social distancing and a push for virtual tours instead of buyer actually visiting properties. 

Nearly a month later on April 3, 2020, DeSantis instituted a 30-day "statewide stay-at-home order" that effectively shut down the Florida economy but in doing so deemed residential and commercial real estate businesses "essential services," according to an industry press report.

Despite the ability to transact real estate during the "stay-at-home order," it is unclear how many buyers have been willing to view properties - either in person or virtually - in hopes of purchasing residences. It is also unclear how many sellers have opened their properties to potential buyers given the contagiousness of the COVID-19 virus. 

Once the "stay-at-home order" was finally lifted on May 4, 2020 for nearly all of the state - excluding the tricounty South Florida region of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach - the Florida economy was thought to be in recession like much of the United States. Palm Beach County eventually opened its economy on May 11, 2020, and a week later both Miami-Dade and Broward counties opened for business on a limited basis on May 18, 2020.

A month later during the week of June 22, 2020, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties instituted mandatory mask wearing in public areas in response to a "spike" in the number of COVID-19 cases in the South Florida region, according to a press report

Broward County - located between Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties - recommended but did not mandate masks be worn in public areas.

After Independence Day, Miami-Dade County took a step backward and shut back down restaurant dining rooms, party venues, gyms and short-term rentals due to a spike in new COVID-19 cases, according to a press report

With the situation worsening, the state of Florida surpassed New York on July 12, 2020, for the distinction of having the most new COVID-19 cases reported in a day with more than 15,300, according to a press report.  

A day later on July 13, 2020, an additional 12,624 new cases were reported in Florida, pushing the state number of COVID-19 cases to at least 282,435 with more than 121,000 cases in the tricounty South Florida region. On a county-by-county basis, Miami-Dade had nearly 67,715 cases, Broward had nearly 31,485 cases and Palm Beach had more than 21,800 cases, according to a press report

As of July 24, 2020, Florida had more than 402,300 confirmed cases of COVID-19 with nearly 5,700 deaths, according to the Florida Department Of Health's COVID-19 Data And Surveillance Dashboard.

On that same day, the tricounty South Florida region had about 172,440 confirmed cases - representing about 43 percent of the Florida total - and about 2,660 deaths - representing about 47 percent of the state total, according to the state dashboard. 

Following the Labor Day holiday on Sept. 8, 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic had resulted in nearly 650,100 confirmed cases and about 11,915 total deaths in Florida. In the tricounty South Florida region, there were more than 276,635 cases and about 5,070 deaths, according to the state website. 

On a county-by-county basis, Miami-Dade had more than 160,765 confirmed cases and more than 2,665 deaths; Broward had nearly 72,950 confirmed cases and nearly 1,235 deaths; and Palm Beach had more than 42,925 confirmed cases and about 1,170 deaths, according to the state website. 

In a pair of encouraging steps in consecutive weeks, Miami-Dade County joined Broward and Palm Beach counties in once again permitting restaurants to allow indoor dining at levels of up to 50 percent of the seating capacity as of Aug. 31, 2020. The move in Miami-Dade County was based on a leveling off in the number of new COVID-19 cases and pandemic-related deaths, according to a press report.   

The following week on Sept. 8, 2020, Palm Beach County transitioned into Phase 2 with the reopening of entertainment businesses such as movie theaters, playhouses and bowling alleys. Additionally, patrons could once again be served drinks at the bar of various venues. Retailers and museums were also allowed to operate at full capacity, according to a press report

A week later on Sept. 14, 2020, DeSantis upgraded Miami-Dade and Broward counties into Phase 2, joining Palm Beach County and the rest of the other counties in Florida in gradually loosening restrictions in a quest to return to the new normal. Despite the move by the governor, the mayors of Miami-Dade and Broward counties said they are planning to loosen the restrictions eventually but not immediately, according to a press report

In a surprise move on Sept. 25, 2020, DeSantis upgraded all counties in the state of Florida to Phase 3, which permitted the opening of all restaurants, bars and other businesses at 100 percent capacity. As part of the move, DeSantis suspended Florida municipalities from issuing fines to people who refuse to wear masks, according to a press report.   

In the first week of October, Miami-Dade and Broward counties began to welcome back students, teachers and support service in opening public schools on a limited basis, according to a press report

As Florida's number of COVID-19 cases were spiking in the second week of November, Miami Beach Mayor Dan Gelber accussed the governor of "pursuing [a] so-called herd immunity" strategy that "occurs when you purposefully allow the virus to spread throughout the community," according to a press report.   

On Dec. 1, 2020, Florida surpassed one million cases of the COVID-19 virus to become only the third state in the nation to reach that threshold, joining California and Texas, according to a press report

Nearly two weeks later on Dec. 13, the first COVID-19 vaccine - created by Pfizer - began to arrive in Florida to inoculate some 179,400 health care workers and seniors in long-term care facilities in a first round, according to a press report.

On Dec. 23, 2020, DeSantis announced that anyone at least 65 years old would be prioritized in Florida to receive the COVID-19 vaccine ahead of essential workers such as firefighters, law enforcement and teachers, according to a press report.   

At a time when the pace of new COVID-19 cases was slowing, the Tampa Bay area experienced a potential super spreader event on Feb. 7, 2021 as celebratory fans - who were not wearing masks - of the hometown Buccaneers professional football team not only won the NFL championship game but also hosted the Super Bowl, according to a press report.

On Feb. 28, 2021, the Food And Drug Administration (FDA) approved a one-shot vaccine created by Johnson & Johnson, expanding to three brands the number of approved vaccines in the United States, according to a press report

Based on the pace of vaccine doses being manufactured, President Biden announced on March 2, 2021, that the United States will "have enough vaccine supply for every adult in America by the end of May," according to a press report.    

On March 19, 2021, the United States announced that 100 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine had been administered in the first 59 days of the Biden administration, far outpacing the goal of 100 million vaccines in 100 days, according to a press report.    

On that same day of March 19, 2021, Miami-Dade County announced that Florida residents who are at least 50 years old would be able to obtain the vaccine beginning March 22. Residents aged 40 and older would qualify for the vaccine beginning March 29, 2021, according to a press report

Less than a week later on March 25, 2021, President Biden doubled the number of COVID vaccination shots in his first 100 days in office to 200 million, according to a press report.   

On April 5, 2021, all Floridia residents aged 18 and over were cleared to receive the Pfizer, Moderna or Johnson & Johnson vaccines, according to a press report.   

On May 4, 2021, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis "suspended all local COVID-19 emergency mandates immediately and is issuing an executive order to outlaw all local COVID-19 emergency mandates in the state effective July 1, 2021," according to a press report.

As of May 24, 2021, Florida had about 2,311,941 confirmed cases of COVID-19 with about 36,501 deaths, according to the COVID-19 Data And Surveillance Dashboard.

The tricounty South Florida region had about 878,111 confirmed cases - representing about 37.9 percent of the Florida total - and about 12,276 deaths - representing about 33.6 percent of the state total, according to the state website.

On a county-by-county basis, Miami-Dade had about 492,173 confirmed cases and about 6,372 deaths; Broward had about 240,819 confirmed cases and about 3,051 deaths; and Palm Beach had about 145,119 confirmed cases and about 2,853 deaths, according to the Dashboard.       

This being said, about 115 Miami Beach luxury condo units are under contract waiting to transact - or pending - at an average asking price of nearly $3.8 million each or about $1,599 per square foot, according to the statistics. 

The average asking price of a Miami Beach luxury condo currently listed for sale is nearly $4.4 million per unit. This works out to an average asking price of about $1,693 per square foot, according to the data compiled by CondoVulturesRealty.com.

In the first three months of 2021, the average transaction price of a Miami Beach luxury condo was nearly $3.6 million or about $1,293 per square foot.

This means the current asking price of a Miami Beach luxury condo listed for sale is nearly 23 percent higher than the average transaction price achieved on a per-unit basis and nearly 31 percent higher than the average transaction price on a per-square-foot basis between January and March of this year.

In the first quarter of 2021, the sellers who were able to unload their units needed about 226 days to transact a Miami Beach luxury condo listed for sale. The current Days-On-The-Market average for Miami Beach luxury condos listed for sale is about 198, according to the statistics.

The number of Days-On-The-Market for the luxury condo units currently under contract is about 196 in Miami Beach, according to the statistics.

CondoVulturesRealty.com is a licensed Florida brokerage that specializes in assisting buyers and tenants in value-oriented condo acquisitions and leases in the tricounty region of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach.

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