South Florida Enjoys Only 4-Month Supply Of Condos Listed For Sale At Start Of Summer Buying Season

Buyers Purchased Nearly 11,400 South Florida Condos In Q1 2021

(This Report Is Powered By The Condo Vultures® Podcast Series Featuring Expert Peter Zalewski

DOWNTOWN MIAMI (May 7, 2021) - At least 14,640 condo units are formally listed for sale in the tricounty South Florida region of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a new report from Condo Vultures® Realty LLC. 

Based on monthly condo sales of more than 3,797 units in the first quarter of 2020, South Florida now has nearly a four-month supply of units available for purchase in the tricounty region at the start of the traditional Summer Buying Season, according to the report based on data from the Southeast Florida MLS Matrix. 

A balanced market is generally considered to have about six months of supply. More months of condo supply listed for sale suggests a buyer’s advantage and less months typically indicates a seller’s advantage in the market. 

It is worth noting this report only tracks those South Florida condos formally listed for sale. The report does not factor in the nearly 47,750 new condo units currently in the development pipeline east of Interstate 95 in the tricounty region, according to CraneSpotters.com.  

In this new COVID-19 pandemic era, numerous questions exist about how the South Florida residential real estate market will perform going forward, both in the short- and medium-term periods. After a typical start to the new year, the South Florida residential real estate market began to change dramatically at the end of the first quarter of 2020. 

When Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a "state of emergency to create a pathway to obtain funding and resources to stop the spread of COVID-19" on March 9, 2020, the South Florida residential real estate market continued to function, albeit with changes for safety that included social distancing and a push for virtual tours instead of buyer actually visiting properties. 

Nearly a month later on April 3, 2020, DeSantis instituted a 30-day "statewide stay-at-home order" that effectively shut down the Florida economy but in doing so deemed residential and commercial real estate businesses "essential services," according to an industry press report.

Despite the ability to transact real estate during the "stay-at-home order," it is unclear how many buyers have been willing to view properties - either in person or virtually - in hopes of purchasing residences. It is also unclear how many sellers have opened their properties to potential buyers given the contagiousness of the COVID-19 virus. 

Once the "stay-at-home order" was finally lifted on May 4, 2020 for nearly all of the state - excluding the tricounty South Florida region of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach - the Florida economy was thought to be in recession like much of the United States. Palm Beach County eventually opened its economy on May 11, 2020, and a week later both Miami-Dade and Broward counties opened for business on a limited basis on May 18, 2020.

A month later during the week of June 22, 2020, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties instituted mandatory mask wearing in public areas in response to a "spike" in the number of COVID-19 cases in the South Florida region, according to a press report. 

Broward County - located between Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties - recommended but did not mandate masks be worn in public areas.

After Independence Day, Miami-Dade County took a step backward and shut back down restaurant dining rooms, party venues, gyms and short-term rentals due to a spike in new COVID-19 cases, according to a press report. 

With the situation worsening, the state of Florida surpassed New York on July 12, 2020, for the distinction of having the most new COVID-19 cases reported in a day with more than 15,300, according to a press report.  

A day later on July 13, 2020, an additional 12,624 new cases were reported in Florida, pushing the state number of COVID-19 cases to at least 282,435 with more than 121,000 cases in the tricounty South Florida region. On a county-by-county basis, Miami-Dade had nearly 67,715 cases, Broward had nearly 31,485 cases and Palm Beach had more than 21,800 cases, according to a press report. 

As of July 24, 2020, Florida had more than 402,300 confirmed cases of COVID-19 with nearly 5,700 deaths, according to the Florida Department Of Health's COVID-19 Data And Surveillance Dashboard.

On that same day, the tricounty South Florida region had about 172,440 confirmed cases - representing about 43 percent of the Florida total - and about 2,660 deaths - representing about 47 percent of the state total, according to the state dashboard. 

Following the Labor Day holiday on Sept. 8, 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic had resulted in nearly 650,100 confirmed cases and about 11,915 total deaths in Florida. In the tricounty South Florida region, there were more than 276,635 cases and about 5,070 deaths, according to the state website. 

On a county-by-county basis, Miami-Dade had more than 160,765 confirmed cases and more than 2,665 deaths; Broward had nearly 72,950 confirmed cases and nearly 1,235 deaths; and Palm Beach had more than 42,925 confirmed cases and about 1,170 deaths, according to the state website. 

In a pair of encouraging steps in consecutive weeks, Miami-Dade County joined Broward and Palm Beach counties in once again permitting restaurants to allow indoor dining at levels of up to 50 percent of the seating capacity as of Aug. 31, 2020. The move in Miami-Dade County was based on a leveling off in the number of new COVID-19 cases and pandemic-related deaths, according to a press report.   

The following week on Sept. 8, 2020, Palm Beach County transitioned into Phase 2 with the reopening of entertainment businesses such as movie theaters, playhouses and bowling alleys. Additionally, patrons could once again be served drinks at the bar of various venues. Retailers and museums were also allowed to operate at full capacity, according to a press report. 

A week later on Sept. 14, 2020, DeSantis upgraded Miami-Dade and Broward counties into Phase 2, joining Palm Beach County and the rest of the other counties in Florida in gradually loosening restrictions in a quest to return to the new normal. Despite the move by the governor, the mayors of Miami-Dade and Broward counties said they are planning to loosen the restrictions eventually but not immediately, according to a press report. 

In a surprise move on Sept. 25, 2020, DeSantis upgraded all counties in the state of Florida to Phase 3, which permitted the opening of all restaurants, bars and other businesses at 100 percent capacity. As part of the move, DeSantis suspended Florida municipalities from issuing fines to people who refuse to wear masks, according to a press report.   

In the first week of October, Miami-Dade and Broward counties began to welcome back students, teachers and support service in opening public schools on a limited basis, according to a press report. 

As Florida's number of COVID-19 cases were spiking in the second week of November, Miami Beach Mayor Dan Gelber accussed the governor of "pursuing [a] so-called herd immunity" strategy that "occurs when you purposefully allow the virus to spread throughout the community," according to a press report.   

On Dec. 1, 2020, Florida surpassed one million cases of the COVID-19 virus to become only the third state in the nation to reach that threshold, joining California and Texas, according to a press report. 

Nearly two weeks later on Dec. 13, the first COVID-19 vaccine - created by Pfizer - began to arrive in Florida to inoculate some 179,400 health care workers and seniors in long-term care facilities in a first round, according to a press report.

On Dec. 23, 2020, DeSantis announced that anyone at least 65 years old would be prioritized in Florida to receive the COVID-19 vaccine ahead of essential workers such as firefighters, law enforcement and teachers, according to a press report.   

At a time when the pace of new COVID-19 cases was slowing, the Tampa Bay area experienced a potential super spreader event on Feb. 7, 2021 as celebratory fans - who were not wearing masks - of the hometown Buccaneers professional football team not only won the NFL championship game but also hosted the Super Bowl, according to a press report.

On Feb. 28, 2021, the Food And Drug Administration (FDA) approved a one-shot vaccine created by Johnson & Johnson, expanding to three brands the number of approved vaccines in the United States, according to a press report. 

Based on the pace of vaccine doses being manufactured, President Biden announced on March 2, 2021, that the United States will "have enough vaccine supply for every adult in America by the end of May," according to a press report.    

On March 19, 2021, the United States announced that 100 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine had been administered in the first 59 days of the Biden administration, far outpacing the goal of 100 million vaccines in 100 days, according to a press report.    

On that same day of March 19, 2021, Miami-Dade County announced that Florida residents who are at least 50 years old would be able to obtain the vaccine beginning March 22. Residents aged 40 and older would qualify for the vaccine beginning March 29, 2021, according to a press report. 

Less than a week later on March 25, 2021, President Biden doubled the number of COVID vaccination shots in his first 100 days in office to 200 million, according to a press report.   

On April 5, 2021, all Floridia residents aged 18 and over were cleared to receive the Pfizer, Moderna or Johnson & Johnson vaccines, according to a press report.   

On May 4, 2021, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis "suspended all local COVID-19 emergency mandates immediately and is issuing an executive order to outlaw all local COVID-19 emergency mandates in the state effective July 1, 2021," according to a press report. 

On the same day of May 4, 2021, Florida had about 2,249,535 confirmed cases of COVID-19 with about 35,399 deaths, according to the COVID-19 Data And Surveillance Dashboard.

The tricounty South Florida region had about 856,923 confirmed cases - representing about 38.1 percent of the Florida total - and about 11,902 deaths - representing about 33.7 percent of the state total, according to the state website.

On a county-by-county basis, Miami-Dade had about 480,385 confirmed cases and about 6,206 deaths; Broward had about 235,064 confirmed cases and about 2,921 deaths; and Palm Beach had about 141,474 confirmed cases and about 2,775 deaths, according to the Dashboard.       

This being said, more than 6,490 South Florida condo units are under contract and waiting to transact - or pending - at an average asking price of nearly $586,070 each or about $346 per square foot, according to the statistics. 

The average asking price of a South Florida condo currently listed for sale is about $892,855 per unit. This works out to an average asking price of about $496 per square foot, according to the data compiled by CondoVulturesRealty.com. 

It is important to consider that the MLS Matrix has an arbitrary rule that limits the overall "pricing" and "days on the market" information to a maximum of 10,000 units at a time. Therefore, more accurate information for the South Florida condo market is not readily available.

In the first three months of 2021, the average transaction price of a South Florida condo was nearly $456,050 each or about $287 per square foot, according to the statistics. 

This means the current asking price of a South Florida condo listed for sale is nearly 96 percent higher than the average transaction price achieved on a per-unit basis and nearly 73 percent higher than the average transaction price on a per-square-foot basis between January and March of this year. 

In the first quarter of 2021, the sellers who were able to unload their units needed about 111 days to transact a South Florida condo listed for sale. The current Days-On-The-Market average for a South Florida condo listed for sale is about 220 days, according to the statistics. 

The number of Days-On-The-Market for the condo units currently under contract is 113, according to the stats.

CondoVulturesRealty.com is a licensed Florida brokerage that specializes in assisting buyers and tenants in value-oriented condo acquisitions and leases in the tricounty region of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach.

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